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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ falcons week 4, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
1-2
28
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
30
ATLFalcons
3-0
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
7
7
28
Falcons
7
10
7
6
30

Spread

CAR logo
+7

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
404
426
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
6.4
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.10
Passing Yards
205
305
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.04
Rushing Yards
199
121
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
5.7
6.4
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.50
-3.92
Sacks
3
7
Sack Yards
-10
-64
Sack EPA
-1.81
-11.66
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
64
--
Penalty EPA
-5.24
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+193
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.6
Home QB Adjustment
+23.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
-45.8
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
11/20
1.7
64
11/27
2.5
70
12/04
7.4
92
12/11
-1.1
43
12/18
4.3
78
12/24
9.0
96
01/01
-2.5
33
09/09
-2.3
34
09/16
7.6
91
09/20
-6.3
12
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
Value
Ptile
11/27
5.8
86
12/04
-1.8
38
12/11
4.9
81
12/15
5.8
85
12/26
6.8
90
01/01
-0.5
48
01/08
-3.0
31
09/09
12.4
99
09/17
4.0
75
09/23
5.2
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Panthers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
9
19

EPA

EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
11
12
EPA / Rush
6
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
10
7
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Falcons logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
13

EPA

EPA / Play
9
22
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
30
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
15
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
9
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-14
L
L
O
11/27
8
W
W
U
12/04
19
W
W
O
12/11
-8
L
L
O
12/18
15
W
W
U
12/24
32
W
W
O
01/01
-28
L
L
O
09/09
-6
L
L
U
09/16
8
W
W
O
09/20
-29
L
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
10
W
P
U
12/04
-7
L
L
U
12/11
8
W
W
O
12/15
27
W
W
O
12/26
-29
L
L
O
01/01
21
W
W
O
01/08
-22
L
L
U
09/09
16
W
W
O
09/17
6
W
W
U
09/23
24
W
W
U