CARPanthers
1-2
28
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
030
ATLFalcons
3-0
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
7
7
28
Falcons
7
10
7
6
30
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
404
426
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
6.4
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.10
Passing Yards
205
305
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.04
Rushing Yards
199
121
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
5.7
6.4
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.50
-3.92
Sacks
3
7
Sack Yards
-10
-64
Sack EPA
-1.81
-11.66
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
64
--
Penalty EPA
-5.24
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+193
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.6
Home QB Adjustment
+23.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
-45.8
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
9
19
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
11
12
EPA / Rush
6
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
10
7
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
13
EPA
EPA / Play
9
22
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
30
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
15
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
9
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U