CARPanthers
1-4
17
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
031
ATLFalcons
2-3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
7
7
0
17
Falcons
7
7
0
17
31
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
325
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
5.9
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.30
Passing Yards
229
159
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.41
Rushing Yards
139
166
Rush Attempts
26
35
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.22
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
67%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
40%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.39
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-4
Sack EPA
-1.83
-2.10
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
85
57
Penalty EPA
-8.49
-3.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-40.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
+38.3
Market Regression
-42.2
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+38.3
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
11
16
EPA / Rush
1
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
18
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
7
8
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
27
Yards / Game
12
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
13
31
EPA / Pass
9
32
EPA / Rush
23
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
9
12
Turnover EPA / Game
28
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
26
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
13
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-3-2
O/U