CARPanthers
3-4
19
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
013
ATLFalcons
3-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
6
3
7
19
Falcons
3
7
0
3
13
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
213
Total Plays
72
50
Yards / Play
4.6
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.19
Passing Yards
--
131
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.31
Rushing Yards
203
82
Rush Attempts
47
20
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
13
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
59%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.46
-7.68
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
--
-5.06
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
76
15
Penalty EPA
-9.69
-3.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.1
Away QB Adjustment
-23.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-23.5
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
29
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27
EPA
EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
27
EPA / Rush
17
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
32
20
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
30
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
25
25
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
29
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
18
EPA
EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
8
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
24
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U