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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ falcons week 8, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
3-4
19
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
13
ATLFalcons
3-3
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
6
3
7
19
Falcons
3
7
0
3
13

Spread

CAR logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
332
213
Total Plays
72
50
Yards / Play
4.6
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.19
Passing Yards
--
131
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.31
Rushing Yards
203
82
Rush Attempts
47
20
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
13
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
59%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.46
-7.68
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
--
-5.06
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
76
15
Penalty EPA
-9.69
-3.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.1
Away QB Adjustment
-23.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-23.5
Value
Ptile
12/20
2.3
62
12/27
-3.1
23
01/03
-3.5
22
09/12
2.6
72
09/19
3.6
78
09/23
2.0
67
10/03
1.9
67
10/10
-10.3
4
10/17
-6.1
14
10/24
-10.6
3
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Value
Ptile
12/13
-6.5
9
12/20
6.9
88
12/27
2.8
65
01/03
4.8
77
09/12
-5.7
16
09/19
0.6
57
09/26
1.3
62
10/03
6.0
88
10/10
7.2
91
10/24
1.3
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Panthers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
29
29
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27

EPA

EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
27
EPA / Rush
17
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
32
20
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
30
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
25
25
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Falcons logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
29
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
18

EPA

EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
32
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
8
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
24
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
-8
L
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U
01/03
-26
L
L
U
09/12
5
W
W
U
09/19
19
W
W
U
09/23
15
W
W
U
10/03
-8
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/17
-6
L
L
O
10/24
-22
L
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-4
L
W
O
12/27
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-17
L
L
O
09/12
-26
L
L
U
09/19
-23
L
L
O
09/26
3
W
W
U
10/03
-4
L
L
O
10/10
7
W
W
O
10/24
2
W
W
O