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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ falcons week 16, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
14-0
13
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
20
ATLFalcons
7-7
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
3
3
13
Falcons
0
7
7
6
20

Spread

ATL logo
+7

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
268
373
Total Plays
52
62
Yards / Play
5.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.04
Passing Yards
113
296
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.46
+0.63
Rushing Yards
155
77
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
7.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.55
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.85
-6.18
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-29
-10
Sack EPA
-6.27
-3.52
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
40
20
Penalty EPA
-7.70
-1.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-159
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,614
Home Field
+53.7
Base HFA
+59.8
Divisional Adj
-26.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-54.6
Home QB Adjustment
-14.8
Away QB Adjustment
+39.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+39.8
Value
Ptile
10/18
-1.5
39
10/25
-3.1
28
11/02
-0.9
45
11/08
8.8
95
11/15
1.2
59
11/22
5.8
86
11/26
1.2
59
12/06
9.3
96
12/13
4.1
79
12/20
11.4
99
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.8
Value
Ptile
10/11
-6.5
9
10/15
0.4
53
10/25
-2.4
33
11/01
8.1
94
11/08
2.3
66
11/22
-1.5
40
11/29
-2.9
29
12/06
-1.5
40
12/13
-3.5
25
12/20
-2.3
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Panthers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
11
15
Passing Yards / Game
17
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
14

EPA

EPA / Play
4
15
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
3
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
24
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
26
23
Turnover EPA / Game
22
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Falcons logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4

EPA

EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
29
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
24
1
Fumbles / Game
29
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
17
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
4
W
W
O
10/25
11
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
L
O
11/08
8
W
W
O
11/15
17
W
W
U
11/22
28
W
W
O
11/26
19
W
W
O
12/06
3
W
L
O
12/13
38
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
1-9
ATS
0-9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
6
W
L
U
10/15
-10
L
L
P
10/25
3
W
L
U
11/01
-3
L
L
U
11/08
-1
L
L
U
11/22
-3
L
L
U
11/29
-10
L
L
U
12/06
-4
L
L
U
12/13
-38
L
L
U
12/20
6
W
W
U