CARPanthers
14-0
13
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
020
ATLFalcons
7-7
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
3
3
13
Falcons
0
7
7
6
20
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
373
Total Plays
52
62
Yards / Play
5.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.04
Passing Yards
113
296
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.46
+0.63
Rushing Yards
155
77
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
7.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.55
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.85
-6.18
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-29
-10
Sack EPA
-6.27
-3.52
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
40
20
Penalty EPA
-7.70
-1.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-162
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+53.0
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
-26.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-54.6
Home QB Adjustment
-14.8
Away QB Adjustment
+39.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+39.8
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
11
15
Passing Yards / Game
17
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
14
EPA
EPA / Play
4
15
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
3
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
24
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
26
23
Turnover EPA / Game
22
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4
EPA
EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
29
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
24
1
Fumbles / Game
29
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
1-9
ATS
0-9-1
O/U