CARPanthers
2-13
10
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
031
ATLFalcons
12-3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
0
3
7
10
Falcons
8
7
10
0
25
Spread
-14
Total
PUSH
41
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
352
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
5.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.02
Passing Yards
154
253
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.18
Rushing Yards
137
99
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
7.2
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
23%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.34
-4.36
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-28
-3
Sack EPA
-5.31
-1.71
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
97
20
Penalty EPA
-10.30
-2.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+359
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,297
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-11.8
Market Regression
-30.1
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
J. Clausen
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10
EPA
EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
32
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
28
Interceptions / Game
27
4
Fumbles / Game
30
27
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
18
21
RZ Efficiency
32
21
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
19
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23
EPA
EPA / Play
7
17
EPA / Pass
7
12
EPA / Rush
16
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
2
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
6
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U