nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ falcons week 17, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CAR logo
CARPanthers
2-13
10
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
31
ATLFalcons
12-3
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
0
3
7
10
Falcons
8
7
10
0
25

Spread

ATL logo
-14

Total

PUSH
41
P

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
291
352
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
5.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.02
Passing Yards
154
253
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.18
Rushing Yards
137
99
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
7.2
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
23%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.34
-4.36
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-28
-3
Sack EPA
-5.31
-1.71
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
97
20
Penalty EPA
-10.30
-2.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+359
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,297
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-11.8
Market Regression
-30.1
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

J. Clausen headshot

J. Clausen

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
Value
Ptile
09/26
-4.2
22
10/03
-3.1
29
10/10
-13.5
1
11/14
-2.3
33
11/28
-5.6
15
12/05
-7.7
7
12/12
-10.6
2
12/19
-0.5
45
12/23
-10.5
3
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
10/17
-0.8
44
10/24
8.6
94
11/07
4.4
79
11/11
7.6
92
11/21
6.8
90
11/28
4.4
78
12/05
-2.1
35
12/12
-2.1
35
12/19
-0.4
46
12/27
-0.1
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Panthers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10

EPA

EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
32
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
28
Interceptions / Game
27
4
Fumbles / Game
30
27
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
18
21
RZ Efficiency
32
21
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Falcons logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
19
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23

EPA

EPA / Play
7
17
EPA / Pass
7
12
EPA / Rush
16
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
2
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
6
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
3
W
W
O
10/31
-10
L
L
U
11/07
-31
L
L
U
11/14
-15
L
L
O
11/21
-24
L
L
O
11/28
-1
L
W
O
12/05
-17
L
L
O
12/12
-21
L
L
P
12/19
7
W
W
U
12/23
-24
L
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-14
L
L
O
10/24
7
W
W
O
11/07
6
W
L
O
11/11
5
W
W
O
11/21
17
W
W
O
11/28
3
W
W
U
12/05
4
W
W
O
12/12
21
W
W
P
12/19
16
W
W
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U