CARPanthers
6-8
34
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
03
ATLFalcons
6-9
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
10
8
4
0
22
Falcons
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
288
Total Plays
52
69
Yards / Play
5.9
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.47
Passing Yards
112
225
Comp/Att
10/16(63%)
29/47(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.62
Rushing Yards
194
63
Rush Attempts
35
16
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
40%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-21.89
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-2
-35
Sack EPA
-1.36
-11.13
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
36
--
Penalty EPA
+4.98
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.7
Home QB Adjustment
+23.7
Away QB Adjustment
+43.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+43.4
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
20
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
21
EPA
EPA / Play
17
28
EPA / Pass
19
29
EPA / Rush
11
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
20
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
14
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
25
21
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
20
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11
EPA
EPA / Play
11
16
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
22
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U