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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ falcons week 17, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
6-8
34
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
3
ATLFalcons
6-9
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
10
8
4
0
22
Falcons
0
3
0
0
3

Spread

CAR logo
+3

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
306
288
Total Plays
52
69
Yards / Play
5.9
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.47
Passing Yards
112
225
Comp/Att
10/16(63%)
29/47(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.62
Rushing Yards
194
63
Rush Attempts
35
16
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
40%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-21.89
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-2
-35
Sack EPA
-1.36
-11.13
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
36
--
Penalty EPA
+4.98
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.7
Home QB Adjustment
+23.7
Away QB Adjustment
+43.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+43.4
Value
Ptile
10/05
-1.5
39
10/12
12.3
99
10/19
-2.4
33
10/26
-7.1
10
10/30
-7.4
9
11/10
-9.5
4
11/16
0.2
51
11/30
-4.7
22
12/07
11.6
99
12/21
4.2
78
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
Value
Ptile
10/12
-5.2
18
10/19
-1.8
36
10/26
2.1
66
11/09
0.1
50
11/16
1.9
64
11/23
0.9
56
11/30
6.8
88
12/08
8.8
94
12/14
6.0
86
12/21
6.8
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Panthers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
20
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
21

EPA

EPA / Play
17
28
EPA / Pass
19
29
EPA / Rush
11
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
20
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
14
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
25
21
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Falcons logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
20
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11

EPA

EPA / Play
11
16
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
22
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
6
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
0
T
W
O
10/19
-21
L
L
O
10/26
-4
L
W
U
10/30
-18
L
L
U
11/10
-24
L
L
O
11/16
-2
L
W
U
11/30
-18
L
L
O
12/07
31
W
W
O
12/14
2
W
L
U
12/21
4
W
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-22
L
L
U
10/26
-1
L
W
U
11/09
10
W
W
U
11/16
2
W
L
U
11/23
-2
L
L
O
11/30
11
W
W
O
12/08
-6
L
W
O
12/14
-7
L
L
U
12/21
16
W
W
U