CARPanthers
13-0
38
TBD
MetLife Stadium
41°F
8 mph
35
NYGGiants
6-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
41°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
14
14
3
38
Giants
7
0
7
21
35
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
480
406
Total Plays
77
73
Yards / Play
6.2
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.03
Passing Yards
309
--
Comp/Att
25/45(56%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.01
Rushing Yards
171
161
Rush Attempts
29
27
Yards / Rush
5.9
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
21
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
53%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.08
-10.79
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-5.85
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
88
47
Penalty EPA
-3.52
-6.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model66.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-69
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+59.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
+30.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-115.2
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+30.0
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
30
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24
EPA
EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
3
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
32
4th Down Efficiency
9
22
RZ Efficiency
1
12
Giants Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
6
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
29
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
4
EPA
EPA / Play
7
2
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
21
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
9
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
29
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U