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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ giants week 15, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
13-0
38
TBD
MetLife Stadium
41°F
8 mph
35
NYGGiants
6-7
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
41°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
14
14
3
38
Giants
7
0
7
21
35

Spread

NYG logo
+5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
480
406
Total Plays
77
73
Yards / Play
6.2
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.03
Passing Yards
309
--
Comp/Att
25/45(56%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.01
Rushing Yards
171
161
Rush Attempts
29
27
Yards / Rush
5.9
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
28
21
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
53%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.08
-10.79
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-5.85
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
88
47
Penalty EPA
-3.52
-6.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model66.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-69
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+81.3
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
+30.0
Market Regression
-23.3
Final Difference
-115.0
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+30.0
Value
Ptile
10/04
-1.0
44
10/18
-1.5
39
10/25
-3.1
28
11/02
-0.9
45
11/08
8.8
95
11/15
1.2
59
11/22
5.8
86
11/26
1.2
59
12/06
9.3
96
12/13
4.1
79
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Value
Ptile
10/04
0.9
56
10/11
13.0
100
10/19
-5.3
13
10/25
-6.2
10
11/01
10.7
98
11/08
-1.8
37
11/15
3.1
74
11/29
-6.8
8
12/06
-2.8
30
12/14
11.7
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Giants Defense
Panthers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
1
30
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24

EPA

EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
3
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
32
4th Down Efficiency
9
22
RZ Efficiency
1
12
Giants Offense vs Panthers Defense
Giants logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
6
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
29
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
4

EPA

EPA / Play
7
2
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
21
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
9
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
29
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
14
W
W
O
10/18
4
W
W
O
10/25
11
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
L
O
11/08
8
W
W
O
11/15
17
W
W
U
11/22
28
W
W
O
11/26
19
W
W
O
12/06
3
W
L
O
12/13
38
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/11
3
W
L
O
10/19
-20
L
L
U
10/25
7
W
W
O
11/01
-3
L
P
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/15
-1
L
W
O
11/29
-6
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
L
U
12/14
7
W
W
O