CARPanthers
-
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
77°F
7 mph
9
JAXJaguars
-
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
77°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
7
1
3
14
Jaguars
3
6
0
0
9
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
263
265
Total Plays
68
66
Yards / Play
3.9
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.39
Passing Yards
158
169
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
22/40(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.48
Rushing Yards
105
96
Rush Attempts
35
21
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.64
-17.16
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-17
-14
Sack EPA
-3.30
-5.64
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
22
25
Penalty EPA
-3.14
-1.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-70
Home nfelo
1,355
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.4
Home QB Adjustment
-11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
31
Yards / Game
11
24
Passing Yards / Game
17
32
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
7
26
EPA / Rush
3
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
4
Interceptions / Game
8
26
Fumbles / Game
26
15
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Jaguars Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
17
5
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
27
4
EPA
EPA / Play
24
2
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
30
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
19
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
15
3
Turnover EPA / Game
4
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
25
RZ Efficiency
18
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U