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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ jaguars week 1, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
-
10
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
85°F
3 mph
26
JAXJaguars
-
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
85°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
0
0
7
10
Jaguars
3
17
0
6
26

Spread

JAX logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
255
378
Total Plays
61
63
Yards / Play
4.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.15
Passing Yards
142
--
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.44
+0.04
Rushing Yards
113
200
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
53%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.89
-2.90
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-3.28
--
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
35
93
Penalty EPA
-3.23
-12.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,367
Home Field
+38.4
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+5.4
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Value
Ptile
10/27
-1.9
35
11/03
-2.9
28
11/10
-0.6
45
11/24
1.1
57
12/01
2.6
67
12/08
-1.0
41
12/15
-5.7
13
12/22
4.6
78
12/29
-5.4
14
01/05
11.1
98
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
09/08
-3.8
23
09/15
-2.0
34
09/23
-6.5
10
09/29
-1.2
40
10/06
7.3
92
10/13
-0.0
49
10/20
3.3
72
10/27
5.3
81
11/03
-5.1
16
12/01
-7.2
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Panthers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
27
9
Yards / Game
27
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
23
Rushing Yards / Game
11
1

EPA

EPA / Play
25
6
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
20
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
13
Interceptions / Game
16
2
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
26
19
Jaguars Offense vs Panthers Defense
Jaguars logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
16
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
2
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19

EPA

EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
14
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
18
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
11
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
-14
L
L
O
11/03
1
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
W
O
12/01
-3
L
W
O
12/08
-6
L
W
U
12/15
-16
L
L
O
12/22
6
W
W
O
12/29
-34
L
L
O
01/05
6
W
W
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
-3
L
W
O
11/03
-5
L
W
O
11/10
-5
L
W
U
11/17
-46
L
L
O
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/08
4
W
W
U
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/22
-5
L
L
U
12/29
7
W
W
U
01/05
-3
L
W
O