CARPanthers
-
10
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
85°F
3 mph
26
JAXJaguars
-
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
85°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
0
0
7
10
Jaguars
3
17
0
6
26
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
255
378
Total Plays
61
63
Yards / Play
4.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.12
Passing Yards
142
--
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.44
+0.04
Rushing Yards
113
200
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
53%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.89
-2.90
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-3.28
--
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
35
93
Penalty EPA
-3.23
-12.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,363
Home Field
+38.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+5.4
Market Regression
+18.8
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4
EPA
EPA / Play
25
4
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
20
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
6
5
Jaguars Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
19
Yards / Game
10
19
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
23
EPA
EPA / Play
18
14
EPA / Pass
21
18
EPA / Rush
7
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
20
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
26
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U