CARPanthers
7-3
35
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
23 mph
27
NYJJets
4-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
23 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
9
6
5
23
Jets
3
7
7
10
27
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
391
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
4.5
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.16
Passing Yards
154
282
Comp/Att
11/30(37%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.14
Rushing Yards
147
109
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
21%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.94
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-14
-25
Sack EPA
-4.10
-13.68
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
84
68
Penalty EPA
-8.23
-9.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-139
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+47.9
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.0
Away Bye Adj
-43.4
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+19.6
Market Regression
-25.6
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
22
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24
EPA
EPA / Play
12
22
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
15
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
7
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
3
8
Turnover EPA / Game
14
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
14
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Jets Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
13
Yards / Game
28
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
27
Rushing Yards / Game
19
3
EPA
EPA / Play
23
12
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
23
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
8
7
RZ Efficiency
10
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U