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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ jets week 12, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
7-3
35
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
23 mph
27
NYJJets
4-6
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
23 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
9
6
5
23
Jets
3
7
7
10
27

Spread

CAR logo
-6

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
301
391
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
4.5
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.16
Passing Yards
154
282
Comp/Att
11/30(37%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.14
Rushing Yards
147
109
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
21%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.94
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-14
-25
Sack EPA
-4.10
-13.68
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
84
68
Penalty EPA
-8.23
-9.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-139
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+48.5
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.2
Away Bye Adj
-44.0
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+19.6
Market Regression
-25.6
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
Value
Ptile
09/10
-1.6
41
09/17
-4.3
23
09/24
-9.6
4
10/01
8.9
95
10/08
6.6
90
10/12
-1.9
39
10/22
-6.1
15
10/29
-2.2
37
11/05
3.0
74
11/13
13.0
100
J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
09/10
-2.7
34
09/17
-0.6
48
09/24
1.2
61
10/01
-4.5
22
10/08
-2.4
36
10/15
-0.0
52
10/22
0.6
56
10/29
3.2
75
11/02
1.6
64
11/12
-7.2
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Jets Defense
Panthers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
11
22
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24

EPA

EPA / Play
12
22
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
15
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
7
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
3
8
Turnover EPA / Game
14
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
14
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Jets Offense vs Panthers Defense
Jets logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
13
Yards / Game
28
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
27
Rushing Yards / Game
19
3

EPA

EPA / Play
23
12
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
23
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
8
7
RZ Efficiency
10
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/17
6
W
L
U
09/24
-21
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
W
O
10/08
3
W
W
O
10/12
-5
L
L
O
10/22
-14
L
L
U
10/29
14
W
W
U
11/05
3
W
W
U
11/13
24
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-9
L
L
U
09/17
-25
L
L
O
09/24
14
W
W
U
10/01
3
W
W
O
10/08
3
W
W
U
10/15
-7
L
W
U
10/22
-3
L
P
O
10/29
-5
L
W
O
11/02
13
W
W
O
11/12
-5
L
L
U