CARPanthers
3-1
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
024
DETLions
3-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
14
10
0
27
Lions
3
7
0
14
24
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
242
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
5.7
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.18
Passing Yards
334
192
Comp/Att
26/33(79%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.18
Rushing Yards
28
50
Rush Attempts
28
15
Yards / Rush
1.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
44%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.48
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-21
-37
Sack EPA
-5.13
-12.77
Penalties
11
1
Penalty Yards
100
--
Penalty EPA
-10.28
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
-25.2
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
16
27
Passing Yards / Game
25
16
Rushing Yards / Game
4
19
EPA
EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
15
11
EPA / Rush
15
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
7
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
21
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Lions Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
13
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
27
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3
EPA
EPA / Play
20
12
EPA / Pass
12
17
EPA / Rush
32
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
18
Interceptions / Game
10
24
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
7
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U