CARPanthers
0-4
24
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
042
DETLions
3-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
10
0
14
24
Lions
14
14
0
14
42
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
377
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.26
Passing Yards
243
218
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.21
Rushing Yards
99
159
Rush Attempts
23
30
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.43
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-18
Sack EPA
-1.46
-4.88
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
45
35
Penalty EPA
-8.19
-5.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model78.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+262
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-10.4
Market Regression
+5.0
Final Difference
226.2
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
Value
Ptile
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
25
Yards / Game
32
23
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
2
EPA
EPA / Play
29
23
EPA / Pass
30
28
EPA / Rush
18
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
27
Interceptions / Game
6
9
Fumbles / Game
22
29
Turnover EPA / Game
11
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
27
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Lions Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
2
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
23
EPA
EPA / Play
8
27
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
11
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
2
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
19
32
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
2
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U