CARPanthers
3-2
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
48°F
12 mph
38
GBPackers
4-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
48°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
3
0
14
17
Packers
21
7
10
0
38
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
363
Total Plays
67
56
Yards / Play
4.9
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.29
Passing Yards
223
241
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
19/24(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
10.0
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.38
Rushing Yards
108
122
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.27
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-25
-14
Sack EPA
-3.07
-3.03
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
70
29
Penalty EPA
-8.71
-4.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,619
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-63.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.4
Away QB Adjustment
+79.7
Market Regression
-6.0
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+79.7
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
14
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
28
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26
EPA
EPA / Play
17
17
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
11
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
25
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
14
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
23
RZ Efficiency
25
23
Packers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
6
6
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11
EPA
EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
12
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
2
15
Fumbles / Game
10
4
Turnover EPA / Game
29
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
21
4th Down Efficiency
22
14
RZ Efficiency
11
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
6-3-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
8-2
O/U