CARPanthers
2-1
33
TBD
Gillette Stadium
61°F
6 mph
30
NEPatriots
2-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
61°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
14
6
10
33
Patriots
3
13
0
14
30
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
444
373
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
7.4
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.22
Passing Yards
304
293
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
32/45(71%)
Yards / Pass
10.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.70
+0.22
Rushing Yards
140
80
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
24
Passing 1st downs
18
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
67%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.32
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-14
Sack EPA
-2.76
-4.73
Penalties
1
7
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-7.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+244
Home nfelo
1,659
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+45.1
Home QB Adjustment
+23.8
Away QB Adjustment
-21.3
Market Regression
+9.7
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-21.3
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
16
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
28
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20
EPA
EPA / Play
12
26
EPA / Pass
15
24
EPA / Rush
15
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
21
Interceptions / Game
24
22
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
22
4th Down Efficiency
17
17
RZ Efficiency
21
7
Patriots Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
15
3
EPA
EPA / Play
1
12
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
8
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
18
Interceptions / Game
2
24
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
7
RZ Efficiency
3
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
8-2
O/U