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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ saints week 1, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
-
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
47
NOSaints
-
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
3
7
0
10
Saints
17
13
7
10
47

Spread

NO logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
193
379
Total Plays
55
62
Yards / Play
3.5
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.53
+0.26
Passing Yards
135
199
Comp/Att
13/31(42%)
19/24(79%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.60
+0.33
Rushing Yards
58
180
Rush Attempts
20
37
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.41
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
11
22
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
10%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.38
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-1
Sack EPA
-6.21
-0.91
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
80
95
Penalty EPA
-8.38
-10.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model66.7%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.0%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+33.7
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.4
Time Adj
-8.4
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.3
Market Regression
-3.8
Final Difference
121.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Value
Ptile
11/05
-7.6
10
11/09
-5.8
15
11/19
-10.4
2
11/26
-4.1
23
12/03
-10.3
3
12/10
-7.8
9
12/17
-3.8
25
12/24
3.9
75
12/31
-13.1
1
01/07
-5.1
19
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
10/29
4.7
79
11/05
3.0
70
11/12
-4.4
22
11/26
-1.4
40
12/03
-2.7
31
12/10
-1.8
37
12/17
5.0
82
12/21
4.3
77
12/31
1.8
62
01/07
6.7
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
28
Rushing Yards / Game
16
30

EPA

EPA / Play
24
13
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
9
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
22
12
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
26
10
RZ Efficiency
7
14
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
32
Yards / Game
21
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32

EPA

EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
10
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
4
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
12
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
-14
L
L
U
11/09
-3
L
P
U
11/19
-23
L
L
P
11/26
-7
L
L
U
12/03
-3
L
W
O
12/10
-22
L
L
U
12/17
2
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
O
12/31
-26
L
L
U
01/07
-9
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
11
W
W
O
11/05
7
W
L
U
11/12
-8
L
L
O
11/26
-9
L
L
U
12/03
-5
L
L
O
12/10
22
W
W
U
12/17
18
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/31
10
W
W
U
01/07
31
W
W
O