CARPanthers
-
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
047
NOSaints
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
3
7
0
10
Saints
17
13
7
10
47
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
193
379
Total Plays
55
62
Yards / Play
3.5
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.53
+0.26
Passing Yards
135
199
Comp/Att
13/31(42%)
19/24(79%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.60
+0.33
Rushing Yards
58
180
Rush Attempts
20
37
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.41
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
22
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
10%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.38
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-1
Sack EPA
-6.21
-0.91
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
80
95
Penalty EPA
-8.38
-10.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
Saints-3.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+159
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,400
Home Field
+33.4
Base HFA
+46.4
Divisional Adj
-20.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.2
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.3
Market Regression
-3.5
Final Difference
122.3
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
28
Rushing Yards / Game
16
30
EPA
EPA / Play
24
13
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
9
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
22
12
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
26
10
RZ Efficiency
7
14
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
32
Yards / Game
21
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32
EPA
EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
10
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
4
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
12
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U