CARPanthers
1-4
38
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
041
NOSaints
1-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
10
7
21
38
Saints
14
10
7
10
41
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
523
Total Plays
77
71
Yards / Play
5.3
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.16
Passing Yards
305
460
Comp/Att
27/48(56%)
34/49(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.40
Rushing Yards
103
63
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
32
23
Passing 1st downs
20
19
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
83%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
5
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.50
-4.68
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-19
-5
Sack EPA
-4.98
-0.76
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
51
126
Penalty EPA
-6.78
-12.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-54
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
31
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14
EPA
EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
14
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
28
28
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
10
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
26
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7
EPA
EPA / Play
7
11
EPA / Pass
6
17
EPA / Rush
7
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U