CARPanthers
6-9
33
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
014
NOSaints
13-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
13
10
7
3
33
Saints
0
0
0
14
14
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
294
Total Plays
68
51
Yards / Play
5.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.19
Passing Yards
263
110
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.32
Rushing Yards
111
184
Rush Attempts
37
27
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
17
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
46%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.91
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-8
Sack EPA
-1.66
-1.92
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
10
94
Penalty EPA
-1.22
-11.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model79.9%
Spread Pick
Saints-7.5
Expected Value
+20.0%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+284
Home nfelo
1,699
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+34.4
Home QB Adjustment
-139.4
Away QB Adjustment
-173.8
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
240.0
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-173.8
No recent game data available
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-139.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
14
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2
EPA
EPA / Play
9
11
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
4
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
25
15
Fumbles / Game
9
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
23
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
12
23
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
8
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
9
12
EPA
EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
2
27
EPA / Rush
13
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
4
16
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
4
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U