CARPanthers
6-10
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
07
NOSaints
7-9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
0
7
3
10
Saints
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
203
304
Total Plays
58
58
Yards / Play
3.5
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.29
Passing Yards
32
161
Comp/Att
5/15(33%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
2.1
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.86
-0.33
Rushing Yards
171
143
Rush Attempts
41
32
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
4
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
57%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.08
-2.91
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-10
Sack EPA
-1.24
-2.28
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-1.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+30.2
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-59.8
Home QB Adjustment
-23.6
Away QB Adjustment
+36.2
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+36.2
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-23.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
29
5
Passing Yards / Game
30
12
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24
EPA
EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
24
6
EPA / Rush
9
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
18
Interceptions / Game
15
30
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
7
7
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
17
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
19
18
EPA
EPA / Play
24
15
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
29
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U