CARPanthers
4-0
27
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
5 mph
23
SEASeahawks
2-3
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
7
13
27
Seahawks
3
7
10
3
23
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
383
334
Total Plays
72
60
Yards / Play
5.3
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.03
Passing Yards
248
219
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.05
Rushing Yards
135
115
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.17
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-21
-22
Sack EPA
-5.18
-5.28
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
25
48
Penalty EPA
-2.99
-4.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+158
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+46.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.4
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
+40.1
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
17
6
Rushing Yards / Game
2
3
EPA
EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
7
6
EPA / Rush
3
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
5
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
22
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
9
2
RZ Efficiency
1
3
Seahawks Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
8
5
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
4
EPA
EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
1
2
EPA / Rush
12
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
15
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U