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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ seahawks week 6, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
4-0
27
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
5 mph
23
SEASeahawks
2-3
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
7
13
27
Seahawks
3
7
10
3
23

Spread

CAR logo
+7

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
383
334
Total Plays
72
60
Yards / Play
5.3
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.03
Passing Yards
248
219
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.05
Rushing Yards
135
115
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.17
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-21
-22
Sack EPA
-5.18
-5.28
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
25
48
Penalty EPA
-2.99
-4.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+154
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+46.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.4
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
+40.1
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
11/30
-4.7
22
12/07
11.6
99
12/21
4.2
78
12/28
2.1
66
01/03
-0.0
49
01/10
1.6
62
09/13
-3.6
24
09/20
3.2
74
09/27
8.0
93
10/04
-1.0
44
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Value
Ptile
12/21
14.3
99
12/28
-4.2
25
01/10
5.9
86
01/18
-9.9
3
02/01
1.3
60
09/13
-1.1
43
09/20
4.3
80
09/27
-1.2
42
10/05
-0.1
50
10/11
-3.6
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
17
6
Rushing Yards / Game
2
3

EPA

EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
7
6
EPA / Rush
3
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
5
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
22
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
9
2
RZ Efficiency
1
3
Seahawks Offense vs Panthers Defense
Seahawks logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
8
5
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
4

EPA

EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
1
2
EPA / Rush
12
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
15
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
31
W
W
O
12/14
2
W
L
U
12/21
4
W
L
U
12/28
31
W
W
U
01/03
11
W
W
O
01/10
-14
L
L
O
09/13
11
W
W
U
09/20
7
W
W
P
09/27
5
W
L
O
10/04
14
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
29
W
W
O
12/28
14
W
W
U
01/10
14
W
W
O
01/18
6
W
L
O
02/01
-4
L
L
O
09/13
-3
L
L
O
09/20
-10
L
L
U
09/27
26
W
W
U
10/05
3
W
L
U
10/11
-3
L
P
O