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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ texans week 3, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
2-0
24
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
9
HOUTexans
1-1
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
7
10
24
Texans
0
6
0
3
9

Spread

CAR logo
-8

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
407
193
Total Plays
70
49
Yards / Play
5.8
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.22
Passing Yards
290
151
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.27
Rushing Yards
117
42
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
28
14
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
45%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-14
-17
Sack EPA
-3.61
-6.99
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
64
51
Penalty EPA
-7.27
-5.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market76.2%
Model72.3%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
58.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-127
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+66.2
Base HFA
+43.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
-137.5
Home QB Adjustment
-141.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.7
Market Regression
-1.6
Final Difference
-166.5
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
10/25
-15.0
0
11/01
-2.4
27
11/29
-9.0
4
12/06
-1.4
34
12/13
-8.1
6
12/20
2.3
62
12/27
-3.1
23
01/03
-3.5
22
09/12
2.6
72
09/19
3.6
78
D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-141.2
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Texans Defense
Panthers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
30
31
Passing Yards / Game
29
26
Rushing Yards / Game
20
31

EPA

EPA / Play
32
26
EPA / Pass
32
26
EPA / Rush
17
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
9
Interceptions / Game
32
8
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
1
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
26
4th Down Efficiency
31
20
RZ Efficiency
25
20
Texans Offense vs Panthers Defense
Texans logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
20
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
22
1
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18

EPA

EPA / Play
30
7
EPA / Pass
28
12
EPA / Rush
30
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
5
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
8
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
27
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/15
-23
L
L
O
11/22
20
W
W
U
11/29
-1
L
W
O
12/13
-5
L
L
O
12/19
-8
L
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U
01/03
-26
L
L
U
09/12
5
W
W
U
09/19
19
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-3
L
W
U
11/22
7
W
W
U
11/26
16
W
W
O
12/06
-6
L
L
U
12/13
-29
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
W
U
12/27
-6
L
L
O
01/03
-3
L
W
O
09/12
16
W
W
O
09/19
-10
L
W
O