CARPanthers
4-9
28
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
013
HOUTexans
10-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
14
0
7
28
Texans
0
0
6
7
13
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
358
Total Plays
60
57
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.18
Passing Yards
150
208
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.21
Rushing Yards
166
150
Rush Attempts
34
25
Yards / Rush
4.9
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
64%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.93
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-4
Sack EPA
-2.02
-1.88
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
40
60
Penalty EPA
-3.44
-6.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,647
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-134.9
Home QB Adjustment
-105.0
Away QB Adjustment
+29.9
Market Regression
-31.7
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+29.9
T. Yates
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-105.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
12
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
2
EPA
EPA / Play
6
2
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
1
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
24
Interceptions / Game
21
12
Fumbles / Game
2
22
Turnover EPA / Game
18
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Texans Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
27
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
25
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24
EPA
EPA / Play
14
31
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
4
20
Fumbles / Game
20
12
Turnover EPA / Game
20
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
26
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
22
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U