CARPanthers
1-3
35
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
010
MINVikings
1-3
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
14
7
35
Vikings
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
290
Total Plays
66
60
Yards / Play
5.6
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.18
Passing Yards
236
215
Comp/Att
20/26(77%)
32/44(73%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.80
-0.24
Rushing Yards
131
75
Rush Attempts
39
13
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.91
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-26
Sack EPA
+1.01
-5.02
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
40
55
Penalty EPA
-6.14
-6.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+21
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+91.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-27.0
Home QB Adjustment
-37.4
Away QB Adjustment
-10.5
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-37.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
25
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
16
EPA
EPA / Play
13
29
EPA / Pass
15
29
EPA / Rush
5
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
14
25
Fumbles / Game
1
27
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
15
26
Vikings Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
2
Yards / Game
15
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
3
EPA
EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
27
5
EPA / Rush
1
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
20
8
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
12
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
17
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U