NEPatriots
2-7
19
TBD
Soldier Field
60°F
6 mph
3
CHIBears
4-4
TBD
Soldier Field
60°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
10
0
6
19
Bears
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
142
Total Plays
61
59
Yards / Play
5.4
2.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.40
Passing Yards
184
69
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
2.3
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.75
Rushing Yards
144
73
Rush Attempts
35
20
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
11
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
7%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
20%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.81
--
Sacks
1
9
Sack Yards
--
-51
Sack EPA
-1.63
-14.23
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
40
25
Penalty EPA
-6.97
-3.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,364
Home Field
+49.1
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-26.5
Home QB Adjustment
-16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Maye
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
14
Yards / Game
31
27
Passing Yards / Game
22
29
Rushing Yards / Game
14
27
EPA
EPA / Play
28
17
EPA / Pass
27
10
EPA / Rush
25
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
1
Interceptions / Game
11
18
Fumbles / Game
29
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
12
4th Down Efficiency
14
5
RZ Efficiency
30
3
Bears Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
32
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
1
Rushing Yards / Game
24
22
EPA
EPA / Play
27
26
EPA / Pass
26
30
EPA / Rush
20
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
6
Interceptions / Game
6
27
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
27
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U