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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ bears week 14, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NE logo
NEPatriots
10-2
36
TBD
Soldier Field
26°F
30 mph
7
CHIBears
9-3
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
26°F
30 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
20
3
0
30
Bears
0
0
7
0
7

Spread

NE logo
-3

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
475
185
Total Plays
78
42
Yards / Play
6.1
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.49
Passing Yards
351
138
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
12/26(46%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.75
Rushing Yards
124
47
Rush Attempts
35
14
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
27
12
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
63%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
12
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
8
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-23.37
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-14
Sack EPA
-5.13
-6.17
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
43
30
Penalty EPA
-2.39
-3.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,646
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-13.0
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+24.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
Value
Ptile
09/26
7.9
93
10/04
-0.4
46
10/17
-1.7
39
10/24
-2.5
32
10/31
1.8
60
11/07
3.3
71
11/14
11.3
99
11/21
2.8
68
11/25
10.2
98
12/06
9.1
96
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Value
Ptile
09/19
7.5
92
09/27
0.9
54
10/03
-14.9
0
10/17
-5.9
13
10/24
-7.5
8
11/07
3.7
74
11/14
1.7
59
11/18
-3.6
25
11/28
5.0
83
12/05
0.2
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Bears Defense
Patriots logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
7
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
9
2

EPA

EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
2
5
EPA / Rush
2
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
2
4th Down Efficiency
17
17
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Bears Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bears logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
29
25
Passing Yards / Game
11
25
Rushing Yards / Game
19
13

EPA

EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
12
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
24
Interceptions / Game
30
2
Fumbles / Game
8
13
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
32
4th Down Efficiency
28
25
RZ Efficiency
23
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
8
W
L
O
10/04
27
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
P
U
10/24
3
W
W
U
10/31
10
W
W
O
11/07
-20
L
L
O
11/14
13
W
W
O
11/21
3
W
L
O
11/25
21
W
W
O
12/06
42
W
W
O
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
3
W
W
U
10/03
-14
L
L
U
10/10
17
W
W
U
10/17
-3
L
L
O
10/24
-3
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
P
U
11/14
14
W
W
U
11/18
16
W
W
U
11/28
5
W
W
O
12/05
4
W
L
O