NEPatriots
10-2
36
TBD
Soldier Field
26°F
30 mph
7
CHIBears
9-3
TBD
Soldier Field
26°F
30 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
20
3
0
30
Bears
0
0
7
0
7
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
475
185
Total Plays
78
42
Yards / Play
6.1
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.49
Passing Yards
351
138
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
12/26(46%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.75
Rushing Yards
124
47
Rush Attempts
35
14
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
12
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
63%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
12
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
8
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-23.37
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-14
Sack EPA
-5.13
-6.17
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
43
30
Penalty EPA
-2.39
-3.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,645
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-13.0
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+24.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
7
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
9
2
EPA
EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
2
5
EPA / Rush
2
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
2
4th Down Efficiency
17
17
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Bears Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
29
25
Passing Yards / Game
11
25
Rushing Yards / Game
19
13
EPA
EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
12
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
24
Interceptions / Game
30
2
Fumbles / Game
8
13
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
32
4th Down Efficiency
28
25
RZ Efficiency
23
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U