NEPatriots
10-3
34
TBD
Paycor Stadium
36°F
6 mph
13
CINBengals
1-12
TBD
Paycor Stadium
36°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
6
8
7
28
Bengals
10
0
0
3
13
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
315
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
4.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.26
Passing Yards
116
--
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.40
Rushing Yards
175
164
Rush Attempts
32
32
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
43%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+4.08
-18.94
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-1.86
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
30
25
Penalty EPA
-2.47
-3.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market81.3%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-258
Home nfelo
1,342
Away nfelo
1,683
Home Field
+47.5
Base HFA
+47.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+35.7
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
-22.9
Market Regression
-32.5
Final Difference
-255.3
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.9
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
14
29
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
18
32
EPA
EPA / Play
16
30
EPA / Pass
18
29
EPA / Rush
15
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
9
Interceptions / Game
10
21
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
26
4
Bengals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
11
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
8
EPA
EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
22
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
6
RZ Efficiency
30
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bengals
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U