NEPatriots
-
23
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
11 mph
21
BUFBills
-
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
10
7
0
6
23
Bills
0
8
7
0
15
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
286
Total Plays
89
61
Yards / Play
4.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.18
Passing Yards
273
--
Comp/Att
29/52(56%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.02
Rushing Yards
158
136
Rush Attempts
34
34
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
15
Passing 1st downs
18
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
55%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
11
4
3rd Down Attempts
20
13
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-19.08
-8.16
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.99
--
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
36
75
Penalty EPA
-3.43
-7.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model79.3%
Spread Pick
Bills+10.0
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-202
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-233.8
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27
EPA
EPA / Play
3
8
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
13
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
14
4th Down Efficiency
18
11
RZ Efficiency
8
6
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28
EPA
EPA / Play
26
15
EPA / Pass
31
14
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
21
Interceptions / Game
15
10
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
2
RZ Efficiency
29
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U