NEPatriots
1-2
52
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
7 mph
28
BUFBills
2-1
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
0
14
31
52
Bills
0
14
7
7
28
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
580
438
Total Plays
77
69
Yards / Play
7.5
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.28
-0.11
Passing Yards
333
340
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.18
Rushing Yards
247
98
Rush Attempts
40
27
Yards / Rush
6.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.55
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
33
19
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
19
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
83%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
5
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
6
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-7.16
-22.16
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-10
Sack EPA
-0.88
-4.04
Penalties
1
3
Penalty Yards
--
17
Penalty EPA
--
-3.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-137
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,667
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
+73.5
Final Difference
-101.0
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
3
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
23
Interceptions / Game
5
20
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8
EPA
EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
30
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
22
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U