NEPatriots
2-2
23
TBD
New Era Field
66°F
3 mph
20
BUFBills
4-0
TBD
New Era Field
66°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
3
7
10
23
Bills
0
3
7
10
20
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
363
Total Plays
56
61
Yards / Play
6.0
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.03
Passing Yards
267
245
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.21
Rushing Yards
71
118
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
33%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.02
-14.30
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-6
-8
Sack EPA
-3.91
-1.40
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
93
90
Penalty EPA
-9.00
-9.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+198
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,443
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+14.0
Market Regression
-22.6
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+3.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
14
Yards / Game
9
13
Passing Yards / Game
1
3
Rushing Yards / Game
20
31
EPA
EPA / Play
6
25
EPA / Pass
1
8
EPA / Rush
28
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
20
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
18
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
2
8
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
1
1
EPA
EPA / Play
2
8
EPA / Pass
4
14
EPA / Rush
2
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
10
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
5
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U