NEPatriots
2-2
+7.5
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
0-7.5
BUFBills
4-0
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+21.2
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+14.0
Market Regression
-22.6
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
17
Yards / Game
14
11
Passing Yards / Game
5
1
Rushing Yards / Game
25
31
EPA
EPA / Play
9
25
EPA / Pass
3
11
EPA / Rush
28
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
21
RZ Efficiency
8
21
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
10
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
2
EPA
EPA / Play
1
17
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
1
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
4
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
32
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
4
RZ Efficiency
8
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U