NEPatriots
4-1
28
TBD
New Era Field
50°F
14 mph
6
BUFBills
2-4
TBD
New Era Field
50°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
0
7
7
28
Bills
3
0
0
3
6
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
256
Total Plays
58
52
Yards / Play
4.6
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.23
Passing Yards
171
181
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.24
Rushing Yards
94
75
Rush Attempts
27
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
13
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
53%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-11.50
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-12
Sack EPA
-3.06
-7.01
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
25
67
Penalty EPA
-2.28
-5.18
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
11
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
6
Rushing Yards / Game
14
27
EPA
EPA / Play
4
10
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
11
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
10
24
Fumbles / Game
25
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
3
20
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
30
10
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
27
5
EPA
EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
25
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
25
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U