NEPatriots
8-5
17
TBD
New Era Field
28°F
5 mph
10
BUFBills
5-8
TBD
New Era Field
28°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
14
3
0
17
Bills
3
0
0
7
10
Spread
7
P
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
224
241
Total Plays
57
56
Yards / Play
3.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
136
Comp/Att
11/23(48%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.24
Rushing Yards
109
105
Rush Attempts
34
23
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
42%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.82
-2.36
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-41
Sack EPA
--
-6.33
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
52
124
Penalty EPA
-4.22
-12.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model77.5%
Spread Pick
Patriots-7.0
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-251
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,658
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-40.6
Home QB Adjustment
-31.3
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
+6.1
Final Difference
-214.7
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-31.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
31
EPA
EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
11
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
15
2
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
11
20
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
19
EPA
EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
17
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
19
4th Down Efficiency
19
14
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U