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  1. nfelo...
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  3. patriots @ bills week 15, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NE logo
NEPatriots
8-5
17
TBD
New Era Field
28°F
5 mph
10
BUFBills
5-8
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
28°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
14
3
0
17
Bills
3
0
0
7
10

Spread

NE logo
BUF logo
7
P

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
224
241
Total Plays
57
56
Yards / Play
3.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
136
Comp/Att
11/23(48%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.24
Rushing Yards
109
105
Rush Attempts
34
23
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
42%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.82
-2.36
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-41
Sack EPA
--
-6.33
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
52
124
Penalty EPA
-4.22
-12.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model76.9%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-247
Home nfelo
1,412
Away nfelo
1,653
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-40.6
Home QB Adjustment
-31.3
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
+2.1
Final Difference
-209.3
Model Spread
+8.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Value
Ptile
10/04
4.3
78
10/11
3.1
70
10/18
15.2
100
10/25
5.3
84
11/08
3.3
72
11/15
8.1
92
11/22
5.3
83
11/30
-2.1
38
12/06
4.8
81
12/13
-0.0
49
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-31.3
Value
Ptile
12/07
-5.9
11
12/14
3.0
72
12/21
-2.2
34
12/28
-2.7
30
10/25
-3.5
27
11/01
-7.1
11
11/22
-2.4
35
11/29
1.1
56
12/03
-6.7
12
12/13
-5.4
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
31

EPA

EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
11
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
15
2
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
11
20
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
19

EPA

EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
17
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
19
4th Down Efficiency
19
14
RZ Efficiency
32
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
6
W
W
O
10/11
-3
L
L
U
10/18
59
W
W
O
10/25
28
W
W
U
11/08
10
W
L
U
11/15
-1
L
P
O
11/22
17
W
W
P
11/30
-21
L
L
U
12/06
-1
L
L
U
12/13
10
W
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-28
L
L
O
10/11
-3
L
L
U
10/18
3
W
W
U
10/25
11
W
W
U
11/01
-21
L
L
U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
W
U
11/29
17
W
W
O
12/03
-6
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
U