NEPatriots
4-10
13
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
25 mph
10
BUFBills
7-6
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
25 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Patriots
3
0
0
7
3
13
Bills
0
3
0
7
0
10
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
347
Total Plays
75
71
Yards / Play
4.4
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.34
Passing Yards
142
169
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.34
Rushing Yards
189
178
Rush Attempts
48
40
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
17
Red Zone %
25%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.98
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-14
-28
Sack EPA
-1.31
-4.46
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
75
54
Penalty EPA
-7.44
-6.11
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
14
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
6
EPA
EPA / Play
20
19
EPA / Pass
18
12
EPA / Rush
27
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
3
Interceptions / Game
10
17
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
12
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
24
12
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
17
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
10
20
EPA
EPA / Play
24
18
EPA / Pass
13
24
EPA / Rush
23
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
11
16
Turnover EPA / Game
31
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U