NEPatriots
12-2
34
TBD
New Era Field
22°F
16 mph
3
BUFBills
4-10
TBD
New Era Field
22°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
17
7
3
34
Bills
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
348
369
Total Plays
69
60
Yards / Play
5.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.42
Passing Yards
131
244
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
18/37(49%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.57
Rushing Yards
217
125
Rush Attempts
41
20
Yards / Rush
5.3
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
60%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
6
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
+3.82
-27.52
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-7
Sack EPA
-1.59
-6.24
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
40
40
Penalty EPA
-5.26
-8.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-196
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,650
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+20.2
Away QB Adjustment
+20.5
Market Regression
+48.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
28
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
23
8
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
1
27
EPA / Pass
2
28
EPA / Rush
2
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
18
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
2
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
9
27
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13
EPA
EPA / Play
29
20
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
23
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
25
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U