NEPatriots
3-11
21
TBD
New Era Field
14°F
2 mph
24
BUFBills
11-3
TBD
New Era Field
14°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
7
0
7
21
Bills
0
7
10
1
18
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
324
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
5.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.09
Passing Yards
253
152
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.05
Rushing Yards
126
172
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
7
--
3rd Down %
58%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.51
-0.29
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-2
Sack EPA
-2.97
-1.81
Penalties
5
13
Penalty Yards
--
78
Penalty EPA
--
-12.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.8%
Spread Pick
Bills-14.0
Expected Value
+3.9%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+375
Home nfelo
1,688
Away nfelo
1,357
Home Field
+21.8
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.7
Home QB Adjustment
+36.0
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
343.0
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
D. Maye
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+36.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13
EPA
EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
27
23
EPA / Rush
25
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
30
17
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22
EPA
EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
3
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
6
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
2
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U