NEPatriots
4-11
21
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
4 mph
27
BUFBills
9-6
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
7
0
7
21
Bills
13
1
7
0
21
Spread
+15
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
294
281
Total Plays
53
68
Yards / Play
5.5
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.11
Passing Yards
191
154
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.63
-0.16
Rushing Yards
103
127
Rush Attempts
24
37
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-22.11
-2.28
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-15
Sack EPA
-4.83
-2.41
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
20
32
Penalty EPA
-1.96
-4.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-15.0
Model
-15.0
Win Probability
Market88.4%
Model88.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+291
Home nfelo
1,674
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-3.4
Market Regression
+31.4
Final Difference
349.6
Model Spread
-15.0
Quarterbacks
B. Zappe
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
30
8
Passing Yards / Game
31
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
15
EPA
EPA / Play
32
11
EPA / Pass
31
6
EPA / Rush
22
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
16
3
Turnover EPA / Game
4
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
32
15
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
5
6
Passing Yards / Game
19
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
3
EPA
EPA / Play
3
6
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
1
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
26
23
Fumbles / Game
15
26
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
7
4th Down Efficiency
7
20
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U