NEPatriots
3-3
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
9 mph
31
DENBroncos
3-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
10
7
3
0
20
Broncos
7
3
14
1
25
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
355
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.08
Passing Yards
183
269
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.18
Rushing Yards
117
86
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
43%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
5
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-20.43
-8.50
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-20
-14
Sack EPA
-2.21
-2.22
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
53
66
Penalty EPA
-4.66
-12.69
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
21
Yards / Game
20
8
Passing Yards / Game
19
6
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6
EPA
EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
10
19
EPA / Rush
21
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
22
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
13
RZ Efficiency
15
11
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
17
EPA
EPA / Play
14
7
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
9
Interceptions / Game
18
7
Fumbles / Game
8
11
Turnover EPA / Game
18
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
8
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U