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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ broncos week 10, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
6-2
41
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
48°F
5 mph
16
DENBroncos
3-5
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
48°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
13
7
7
41
Broncos
6
3
7
0
16

Spread

NE logo
-7

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
396
339
Total Plays
67
61
Yards / Play
5.9
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.42
-0.05
Passing Yards
297
--
Comp/Att
28/37(76%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.02
Rushing Yards
99
118
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
28
17
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
36%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.82
-5.98
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-2.64
--
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
28
Penalty EPA
--
-6.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model70.7%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-118
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,630
Home Field
+52.8
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.2
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+20.4
Net QB Adjustment
-23.3
Home QB Adjustment
-13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.2
Market Regression
+2.7
Final Difference
-153.1
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Value
Ptile
01/22
9.6
96
02/05
5.5
84
09/07
-4.8
20
09/17
10.5
98
09/24
9.3
96
10/01
4.5
82
10/05
0.6
56
10/15
0.5
55
10/22
2.7
71
10/29
3.6
78
B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-13.1
Value
Ptile
10/30
-5.8
13
11/13
-2.0
34
11/21
-0.1
47
11/27
-3.3
24
12/04
1.1
57
12/11
-7.3
7
12/18
-9.3
3
01/07
1.6
60
01/14
-7.0
8
11/05
-7.9
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Patriots logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5

EPA

EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
8
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
3
Interceptions / Game
2
25
Fumbles / Game
6
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
7
RZ Efficiency
3
25
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Broncos logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
26
7
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
28
Rushing Yards / Game
12
20

EPA

EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
31
24
EPA / Rush
16
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
21
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
2
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
26
17
RZ Efficiency
32
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/22
19
W
W
O
02/05
6
W
W
O
09/07
-15
L
L
O
09/17
16
W
W
O
09/24
3
W
L
O
10/01
-3
L
L
O
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/15
7
W
L
U
10/22
16
W
W
U
10/29
8
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
-23
L
L
O
01/01
18
W
W
U
09/11
3
W
P
O
09/17
25
W
W
O
09/24
-10
L
L
O
10/01
6
W
W
U
10/15
-13
L
L
U
10/22
-21
L
L
U
10/30
-10
L
L
O
11/05
-28
L
L
O