NEPatriots
6-2
41
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
48°F
5 mph
16
DENBroncos
3-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
48°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
13
7
7
41
Broncos
6
3
7
0
16
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
339
Total Plays
67
61
Yards / Play
5.9
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.42
-0.05
Passing Yards
297
--
Comp/Att
28/37(76%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.02
Rushing Yards
99
118
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
17
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
36%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.82
-5.98
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-2.64
--
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
28
Penalty EPA
--
-6.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model70.6%
Spread Pick
Broncos+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-116
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+56.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-43.7
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
+20.1
Net QB Adjustment
-23.3
Home QB Adjustment
-13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.2
Market Regression
+2.5
Final Difference
-152.3
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
8
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
3
Interceptions / Game
2
25
Fumbles / Game
6
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
7
RZ Efficiency
3
25
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
7
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
28
Rushing Yards / Game
12
20
EPA
EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
31
24
EPA / Rush
16
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
21
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
2
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
26
17
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U