NEPatriots
10-0
24
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
23°F
3 mph
30
DENBroncos
8-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
23°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Patriots
7
7
0
10
0
24
Broncos
0
7
0
17
6
30
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
433
Total Plays
61
77
Yards / Play
4.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.02
Passing Yards
262
254
Comp/Att
23/42(55%)
23/42(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.12
Rushing Yards
39
179
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
2.4
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.37
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
15%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+0.91
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-18
-16
Sack EPA
-1.79
-4.96
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
47
46
Penalty EPA
-7.07
-1.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,620
Away nfelo
1,664
Home Field
+104.7
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.4
Time Adj
+21.9
Net QB Adjustment
-70.2
Home QB Adjustment
-58.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
+23.2
Final Difference
-38.7
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-58.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
4
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1
EPA
EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
4
1
EPA / Rush
6
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
4
17
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
21
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
17
10
EPA
EPA / Play
26
10
EPA / Pass
27
12
EPA / Rush
27
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
30
24
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
10-0
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U