NEPatriots
10-3
41
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
3 mph
23
DENBroncos
8-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
20
7
7
41
Broncos
13
3
0
7
23
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
451
393
Total Plays
72
59
Yards / Play
6.3
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.34
+0.04
Passing Yards
310
141
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
11/23(48%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.04
Rushing Yards
141
252
Rush Attempts
36
32
Yards / Rush
3.9
7.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
13
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
42%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+2.53
-10.43
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-10
-53
Sack EPA
-3.74
-8.35
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
30
39
Penalty EPA
-2.77
-6.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-135
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,700
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
+20.8
Market Regression
-47.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
26
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
4
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
6
RZ Efficiency
2
19
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
11
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
28
Rushing Yards / Game
1
19
EPA
EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
27
27
EPA / Rush
10
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
5
4
Fumbles / Game
32
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
28
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
26
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U