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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ broncos week 16, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
3-11
26
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
28°F
9 mph
23
DENBroncos
7-7
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
28°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
14
3
20
Broncos
7
0
0
16
23

Spread

NE logo
+7

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
289
280
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
5.2
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.28
Passing Yards
230
197
Comp/Att
25/33(76%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.09
Rushing Yards
59
83
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
23%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-6.53
-13.99
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-26
-45
Sack EPA
-8.04
-8.96
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+78.2
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
+16.4
Net QB Adjustment
+10.4
Home QB Adjustment
-2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-12.5
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

B. Zappe headshot

B. Zappe

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
Value
Ptile
10/09
-1.8
39
10/16
4.3
83
12/03
-8.4
7
12/07
3.2
71
12/17
-3.3
27
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Value
Ptile
10/08
1.7
61
10/12
-8.8
6
10/22
2.7
68
10/29
-2.8
30
11/13
2.8
68
11/19
2.2
65
11/26
2.8
68
12/03
-5.2
18
12/10
-1.3
41
12/16
-1.4
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Patriots logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
31
27
Yards / Game
30
29
Passing Yards / Game
31
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
30

EPA

EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
31
26
EPA / Rush
22
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
6
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
4
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
10
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Broncos logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
13
8
Rushing Yards / Game
19
3

EPA

EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
20
20
EPA / Rush
19
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
19
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-34
L
L
U
10/15
-4
L
L
U
10/22
4
W
W
O
10/29
-14
L
L
O
11/05
-3
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
L
U
11/26
-3
L
L
U
12/03
-6
L
L
U
12/07
3
W
W
O
12/17
-10
L
P
O
DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-10
L
L
O
10/12
-11
L
L
U
10/22
2
W
W
U
10/29
15
W
W
U
11/13
2
W
W
U
11/19
1
W
L
U
11/26
17
W
W
O
12/03
-5
L
L
U
12/10
17
W
W
U
12/16
-25
L
L
O