NEPatriots
3-11
26
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
28°F
9 mph
23
DENBroncos
7-7
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
28°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
14
3
20
Broncos
7
0
0
16
23
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
280
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
5.2
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.28
Passing Yards
230
197
Comp/Att
25/33(76%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.09
Rushing Yards
59
83
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
23%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-6.53
-13.99
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-26
-45
Sack EPA
-8.04
-8.96
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+77.5
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
+16.3
Net QB Adjustment
+10.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-12.5
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Zappe
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
27
Yards / Game
30
29
Passing Yards / Game
31
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
30
EPA
EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
31
26
EPA / Rush
22
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
6
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
4
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
10
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
13
8
Rushing Yards / Game
19
3
EPA
EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
20
20
EPA / Rush
19
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
19
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U