NEPatriots
13-4
16
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
9 mph
26
DENBroncos
14-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
0
13
16
Broncos
3
10
7
6
26
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
56.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
507
Total Plays
57
71
Yards / Play
5.6
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.28
Passing Yards
256
--
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
32/43(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.45
Rushing Yards
64
107
Rush Attempts
17
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
27
Passing 1st downs
15
21
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-5.24
--
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
15
34
Penalty EPA
-2.32
-2.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model73.8%
Spread Pick
Broncos-5.0
Expected Value
+20.7%
Cover Probability
62.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+225
Home nfelo
1,710
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+37.8
Home QB Adjustment
+21.5
Away QB Adjustment
-16.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
179.8
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.4
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
6
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5
EPA
EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
8
23
EPA / Rush
13
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
18
4
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
10
Yards / Game
1
28
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
1
14
EPA / Rush
19
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
7
10
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U