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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ broncos week 20, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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NE logo
NEPatriots
13-4
16
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
9 mph
26
DENBroncos
14-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
0
13
16
Broncos
3
10
7
6
26

Spread

DEN logo
-5

Total

UNDER
56.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
320
507
Total Plays
57
71
Yards / Play
5.6
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.28
Passing Yards
256
--
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
32/43(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.45
Rushing Yards
64
107
Rush Attempts
17
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
19
27
Passing 1st downs
15
21
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-5.24
--
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
15
34
Penalty EPA
-2.32
-2.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model73.8%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos-5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.7%
Cover Probability
62.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+225
Home nfelo
1,710
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+37.8
Home QB Adjustment
+21.5
Away QB Adjustment
-16.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
179.8
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.4
Value
Ptile
10/27
-6.4
13
11/03
10.4
96
11/18
3.2
72
11/24
6.7
89
12/01
6.7
89
12/08
2.6
68
12/15
5.3
84
12/22
-1.9
40
12/29
-2.9
33
01/11
-4.4
22
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
Value
Ptile
10/27
3.0
71
11/10
7.5
91
11/17
5.0
84
11/24
-3.8
25
12/01
8.5
93
12/08
12.6
98
12/12
2.6
68
12/22
10.5
96
12/29
9.1
94
01/12
2.4
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Patriots logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
6
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5

EPA

EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
8
23
EPA / Rush
13
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
18
4
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Broncos logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
1
10
Yards / Game
1
28
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
28

EPA

EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
1
14
EPA / Rush
19
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
7
10
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
2
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
10
W
W
U
11/03
24
W
W
O
11/18
-4
L
L
U
11/24
3
W
W
O
12/01
3
W
L
O
12/08
1
W
L
O
12/15
-4
L
L
U
12/22
34
W
W
O
12/29
14
W
W
O
01/11
21
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
24
W
W
O
11/10
8
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
7
W
W
O
12/08
23
W
W
O
12/12
-7
L
L
U
12/22
24
W
W
U
12/29
20
W
W
U
01/12
7
W
L
U