NEPatriots
3-1
33
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
13 mph
13
CLEBrowns
0-4
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
7
7
3
31
Browns
7
0
0
6
13
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
501
262
Total Plays
77
60
Yards / Play
6.5
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.17
Passing Yards
403
235
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.56
+0.08
Rushing Yards
98
27
Rush Attempts
35
22
Yards / Rush
2.8
1.2
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.53
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
53%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.16
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-14
Sack EPA
-1.50
-3.75
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
61
35
Penalty EPA
-6.89
-5.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-248
Home nfelo
1,376
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-76.2
Home QB Adjustment
-17.2
Away QB Adjustment
+59.0
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+59.0
C. Kessler
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-17.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
12
30
EPA
EPA / Play
2
32
EPA / Pass
2
32
EPA / Rush
16
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
14
32
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
30
4th Down Efficiency
6
29
RZ Efficiency
8
29
Browns Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
1
Yards / Game
30
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3
EPA
EPA / Play
27
5
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
23
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
27
Interceptions / Game
16
12
Fumbles / Game
27
10
Turnover EPA / Game
16
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
15
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U