NEPatriots
6-1
14
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
43°F
13 mph
34
CLEBrowns
2-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
43°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
7
0
7
14
Browns
10
7
7
10
34
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
404
Total Plays
59
63
Yards / Play
4.8
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.27
Passing Yards
215
--
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
14/19(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.41
Rushing Yards
68
230
Rush Attempts
20
44
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
27%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-11.66
-3.36
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-1.50
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
28
Penalty EPA
--
-5.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-117
Home nfelo
1,378
Away nfelo
1,614
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
+10.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
12
Yards / Game
7
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
11
Rushing Yards / Game
9
26
EPA
EPA / Play
1
23
EPA / Pass
2
25
EPA / Rush
2
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
16
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
28
4th Down Efficiency
17
31
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Browns Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
8
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
21
13
EPA
EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
22
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
27
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U