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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ browns week 9, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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NE logo
NEPatriots
6-1
14
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
43°F
13 mph
34
CLEBrowns
2-5
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
43°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
7
0
7
14
Browns
10
7
7
10
34

Spread

CLE logo
+4

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
283
404
Total Plays
59
63
Yards / Play
4.8
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.27
Passing Yards
215
--
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
14/19(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.41
Rushing Yards
68
230
Rush Attempts
20
44
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
27%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-11.66
-3.36
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-1.50
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
28
Penalty EPA
--
-5.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-120
Home nfelo
1,377
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
+10.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
Value
Ptile
12/27
10.5
98
01/03
-2.3
36
01/10
-6.6
12
09/12
8.9
96
09/19
0.0
49
09/26
7.9
93
10/04
-0.4
46
10/17
-1.7
39
10/24
-2.5
32
10/31
1.8
60
D. McCoy headshot

D. McCoy

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Value
Ptile
10/17
-1.5
40
10/24
-5.3
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Browns Defense
Patriots logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
1
12
Yards / Game
7
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
11
Rushing Yards / Game
9
26

EPA

EPA / Play
1
23
EPA / Pass
2
25
EPA / Rush
2
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
16
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
28
4th Down Efficiency
17
31
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Browns Offense vs Patriots Defense
Browns logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
31
8
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
21
13

EPA

EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
22
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
27
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
28
W
W
U
01/03
-7
L
W
O
01/10
-19
L
L
O
09/12
14
W
W
O
09/19
-14
L
L
O
09/26
8
W
L
O
10/04
27
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
P
U
10/24
3
W
W
U
10/31
10
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
7
W
W
O
12/27
14
W
W
U
01/03
6
W
W
O
09/12
-3
L
L
U
09/19
-2
L
L
U
09/26
-7
L
W
O
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-18
L
L
O
10/24
13
W
W
O