NEPatriots
2-2
19
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
76°F
9 mph
14
TBBuccaneers
2-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
76°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
10
3
3
19
Buccaneers
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
409
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
6.1
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.09
Passing Yards
289
319
Comp/Att
30/40(75%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.01
Rushing Yards
113
90
Rush Attempts
23
20
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.79
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-14
-15
Sack EPA
-8.94
-2.36
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
108
70
Penalty EPA
-13.62
-10.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-100
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,642
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+22.9
Market Regression
+10.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
2
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
23
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
8
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
2
15
Fumbles / Game
6
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
32
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
7
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
1
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
20
EPA
EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
11
24
EPA / Rush
25
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
21
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
32
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
23
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U