NEPatriots
7-2
28
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
11 mph
23
TBBuccaneers
6-2
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
7
7
7
28
Buccaneers
7
3
6
7
23
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
435
371
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
7.4
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.08
Passing Yards
269
258
Comp/Att
16/31(52%)
28/43(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.02
Rushing Yards
166
113
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.49
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-15
Sack EPA
-0.79
-3.82
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
49
40
Penalty EPA
-4.51
-4.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+68.5
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+17.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
9
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10
EPA
EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
28
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
20
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
26
11
Turnover EPA / Game
14
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
1
8
RZ Efficiency
17
26
Buccaneers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1
EPA
EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
18
14
EPA / Rush
9
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
28
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
25
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U