NEPatriots
6-6
27
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
013
ARICardinals
4-8
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
10
4
7
21
Cardinals
0
13
0
0
13
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
323
Total Plays
57
69
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.40
Passing Yards
225
210
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.67
Rushing Yards
103
113
Rush Attempts
21
22
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
27%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.02
-12.50
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-10
-45
Sack EPA
-1.41
-11.13
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
80
48
Penalty EPA
-8.31
-6.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+14.4
Net QB Adjustment
+15.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-9.9
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
31
Yards / Game
26
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
24
14
EPA
EPA / Play
26
21
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
24
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
29
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
15
RZ Efficiency
32
28
Cardinals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
11
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
7
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
28
3
EPA / Rush
15
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
20
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U