NEPatriots
4-1
23
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
69°F
7 mph
20
LACChargers
2-4
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
69°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
6
7
3
23
Chargers
3
0
0
17
20
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
179
363
Total Plays
58
71
Yards / Play
3.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
128
325
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
34/50(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.10
Rushing Yards
51
38
Rush Attempts
22
19
Yards / Rush
2.3
2.0
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.64
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-15.62
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-11
Sack EPA
-4.84
-2.58
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
51
69
Penalty EPA
-5.79
-6.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+0.6
Home QB Adjustment
+4.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.5
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
9
Yards / Game
7
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
4
EPA
EPA / Play
1
7
EPA / Pass
2
2
EPA / Rush
2
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
4
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
9
28
Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
1
25
Passing Yards / Game
1
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13
EPA
EPA / Play
6
20
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
20
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
24
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
28
13
Turnover EPA / Game
14
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
12
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U