NEPatriots
3-4
27
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
024
LACChargers
4-2
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
6
3
5
21
Chargers
7
7
3
7
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
369
Total Plays
76
58
Yards / Play
4.7
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.16
Passing Yards
212
206
Comp/Att
18/36(50%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.22
Rushing Yards
142
163
Rush Attempts
39
20
Yards / Rush
3.6
8.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
12
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.20
-11.19
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-2.39
-3.33
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-6.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+59.7
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+11.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-32.2
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
29
Yards / Game
15
23
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30
EPA
EPA / Play
5
25
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
9
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
17
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
7
27
Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
3
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
5
2
Rushing Yards / Game
21
24
EPA
EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
16
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
21
2
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
16
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Chargers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U