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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ chargers week 13, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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NE logo
NEPatriots
5-6
45
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
0
LACChargers
3-8
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
9
7
10
33
Chargers
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

NE logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
291
258
Total Plays
66
71
Yards / Play
4.4
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.70
Passing Yards
126
188
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
26/53(49%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
3.5
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.52
Rushing Yards
165
70
Rush Attempts
43
15
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
43%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
60%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.24
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-4
-21
Sack EPA
-0.83
-6.89
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
15
30
Penalty EPA
-1.24
-7.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model45.6%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.5%
Cover Probability
53.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+29.8
Home QB Adjustment
+23.1
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-30.3
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Value
Ptile
09/13
4.3
75
09/20
10.2
96
09/27
-5.0
15
10/18
-3.1
24
10/25
-10.1
3
11/01
1.4
53
11/09
6.0
83
11/15
1.3
53
11/22
1.7
56
11/29
-11.5
2
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Value
Ptile
09/20
3.9
72
09/27
2.8
65
10/04
4.8
78
10/12
3.0
67
10/25
11.5
98
11/01
2.2
61
11/08
3.8
72
11/15
-1.0
37
11/22
6.8
88
11/29
-2.5
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Patriots logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
23
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
3
17

EPA

EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
28
19
EPA / Rush
4
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
5
24
Turnover EPA / Game
13
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
23
26
RZ Efficiency
24
8
Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Chargers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
10
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
26

EPA

EPA / Play
23
18
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
31
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
14
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
8
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
15
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
21
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-5
L
L
O
09/27
16
W
W
O
10/05
-16
L
L
U
10/18
-6
L
L
U
10/25
-27
L
L
U
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/09
3
W
L
O
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
-7
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
W
U
LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-3
L
W
U
09/27
-5
L
L
U
10/04
-7
L
W
O
10/12
-3
L
W
O
10/25
10
W
W
O
11/01
-1
L
L
O
11/08
-5
L
L
O
11/15
-8
L
L
O
11/22
6
W
L
O
11/29
-10
L
L
U