NEPatriots
5-6
45
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
00
LACChargers
3-8
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
9
7
10
33
Chargers
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
258
Total Plays
66
71
Yards / Play
4.4
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.70
Passing Yards
126
188
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
26/53(49%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
3.5
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.52
Rushing Yards
165
70
Rush Attempts
43
15
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
43%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
60%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.24
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-4
-21
Sack EPA
-0.83
-6.89
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
15
30
Penalty EPA
-1.24
-7.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model45.8%
Spread Pick
Patriots+1.5
Expected Value
+2.5%
Cover Probability
53.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-71
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+29.8
Home QB Adjustment
+23.1
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-29.4
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
23
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
3
17
EPA
EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
28
19
EPA / Rush
4
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
5
24
Turnover EPA / Game
13
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
23
26
RZ Efficiency
24
8
Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
10
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
26
EPA
EPA / Play
23
18
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
31
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
14
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
8
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
15
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
21
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U