NEPatriots
4-0
33
TBD
FedExField
70°F
8 mph
7
WASCommanders
0-4
TBD
FedExField
70°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
6
6
14
7
33
Commanders
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
-16.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
442
223
Total Plays
74
53
Yards / Play
6.0
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.46
Passing Yards
312
78
Comp/Att
28/43(65%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
2.9
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-1.00
Rushing Yards
130
145
Rush Attempts
27
20
Yards / Rush
4.8
7.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
11
Passing 1st downs
16
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.33
-9.71
Sacks
4
6
Sack Yards
-36
-44
Sack EPA
-6.76
-11.26
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
55
72
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-5.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-16.5
Model
-15.0
Win Probability
Market90.3%
Model88.4%
Spread Pick
Commanders+16.5
Expected Value
+5.4%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-316
Home nfelo
1,354
Away nfelo
1,693
Home Field
+55.0
Base HFA
+55.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-32.1
Home QB Adjustment
-30.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
-23.0
Final Difference
-353.3
Model Spread
+15.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-30.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
14
27
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
18
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
29
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
14
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
15
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
26
30
RZ Efficiency
26
25
Commanders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8
EPA
EPA / Play
30
1
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
24
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
29
Interceptions / Game
19
1
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
1
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Commanders
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U