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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ commanders week 5, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NE logo
NEPatriots
4-0
33
TBD
FedExField
70°F
8 mph
7
WASCommanders
0-4
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
70°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
6
6
14
7
33
Commanders
7
0
0
0
7

Spread

NE logo
-16.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
442
223
Total Plays
74
53
Yards / Play
6.0
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.46
Passing Yards
312
78
Comp/Att
28/43(65%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
2.9
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-1.00
Rushing Yards
130
145
Rush Attempts
27
20
Yards / Rush
4.8
7.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
23
11
Passing 1st downs
16
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
--
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.33
-9.71
Sacks
4
6
Sack Yards
-36
-44
Sack EPA
-6.76
-11.26
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
55
72
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-5.25

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-16.5
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market90.3%
Model88.0%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+16.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.5%
Cover Probability
57.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-310
Home nfelo
1,356
Away nfelo
1,690
Home Field
+55.6
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-32.1
Home QB Adjustment
-30.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
-16.6
Final Difference
-346.8
Model Spread
+14.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Value
Ptile
12/16
1.5
57
12/23
-6.0
13
12/30
6.4
87
01/13
8.3
92
01/20
1.6
58
02/03
-2.7
29
09/08
7.2
91
09/15
3.5
75
09/22
3.7
77
09/29
-6.4
14
D. McCoy headshot

D. McCoy

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-30.8
Value
Ptile
11/20
0.6
56
11/27
-1.8
37
12/04
-3.5
28
12/08
-6.7
11
10/27
1.9
65
11/30
4.5
80
12/07
-10.0
3
12/14
-3.2
29
11/22
-3.4
25
12/03
-6.3
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Commanders Defense
Patriots logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
14
27
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
18
31

EPA

EPA / Play
16
29
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
15
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
15
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
26
30
RZ Efficiency
26
24
Commanders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Commanders logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8

EPA

EPA / Play
30
1
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
24
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
29
Interceptions / Game
19
1
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
1
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
27
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
-7
L
L
U
12/23
12
W
L
U
12/30
35
W
W
U
01/13
13
W
W
O
01/20
6
W
W
O
02/03
10
W
W
U
09/08
30
W
W
U
09/15
43
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
L
O
09/29
6
W
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-8
L
L
O
12/03
-15
L
L
U
12/09
-24
L
L
O
12/16
3
W
W
U
12/22
-9
L
W
O
12/30
-24
L
L
U
09/08
-5
L
W
O
09/15
-10
L
L
O
09/23
-16
L
L
O
09/29
-21
L
L
U