NEPatriots
1-2
3
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
038
DALCowboys
2-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
0
0
0
3
Cowboys
10
6
3
7
26
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
253
379
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
4.6
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.63
+0.07
Passing Yards
200
255
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
30/37(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.53
+0.18
Rushing Yards
53
124
Rush Attempts
23
30
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
22
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.54
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-7
-28
Sack EPA
-7.26
-8.67
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-6.38
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,617
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+50.5
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-2.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
-56.0
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
9
Yards / Game
30
7
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
25
18
EPA
EPA / Play
32
9
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
22
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
30
11
Fumbles / Game
16
18
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
17
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
11
22
Cowboys Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
4
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
15
3
EPA
EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
7
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
9
Interceptions / Game
13
23
Fumbles / Game
4
26
Turnover EPA / Game
17
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U